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2474 views June 2, 2016 posted by Maja Wallengren

Brazil May Coffee Exports Continue To Erode, Down 17.5% To Fresh 4-Year Lows At 2.17M Bags As Stocks Dry Up, Jan-May Exports Dn 8.9%

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JUN 2 (SpillingTheBeans)–Coffee exports from the world’s largest producer Brazil continued to erode through the month of May, falling 17.5 percent to 2.17 million 60-kilogram bags and setting fresh 4-year lows for the year since January, Trade Ministry figures from Brazil released on Thursday showed.

The sharp drop in exports are in line with expectations by SpillingTheBeans and other analysts that shipments from the last 2015-16 disaster harvest would start to slow down significantly during the first quarter of the year. Strong exports during the last 12 months are primarily a result of a favorable exchange rate which have encouraged aggressive selling of stocks in the local market and NOT because of a bigger crop than expected.

Exports in May last year were 2.63 million bags, the report showed while Brazilian coffee exports from the beginning of the year through May were down 8.9 percent at 12.331 million bags from shipments of 13.543 million bags in the Jan-May period of 2015.

See FULL HARVEST ANALYSIS: “Brazil’s 2016-17 Coffee Harvest Not Seen Over 49M-50M Bags”
http://spilling-the-beans.net/market-analysis-brazils-2016-17-coffee-harvest-not-seen-over-49-50m-
bags/

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MAY 4 (SpillingTheBeans)–Coffee exports from the world’s largest producer Brazil in the month of April crashed to the lowest volumes shipped in 4 years, with green coffee exports down 21 percent at 2.232 million 60-kilogram bags, Trade Ministry figures from Brazil released on Tuesday showed.

The sharp drop in exports are in line with expectations by SpillingTheBeans and other analysts that shipments from the last 2015-16 disaster harvest would start to slow down significantly during the first quarter of the year. Strong exports during the last 12 months are primarily a result of a favorable exchange rate which have encouraged aggressive selling of stocks in the local market and NOT because of a bigger crop than expected.

Exports in April last year were 2.815 million bags, the report showed, and compares to exports of 2.73 million bags in April 2014, 2.458 million bags in April 2013 and 1.72 million bags in April 2012.

Brazilian coffee exports from the beginning of the year through April were down 6.9 percent at 10.161 million bags from shipments of 10.913 million bags in the Jan-Apr period of 2015.

Brazil Mar Coffee Exports Down 3% To 2.775 Mln Bags, Q1-Exports Down 2.1%

APR 4 (SpillingTheBeans)–Coffee exports from the world’s largest producer Brazil in the month of March were DOWN by 3 percent to 2.775 million 60-kilogram bags, new Trade Ministry figures from Brazil released on Monday showed.

The latest figures confirm predictions by SpillingTheBeans and other analysts that shipments from the last 2015-16 disaster harvest would start to wind down at the latest by the end of the first quarter of the year, as heavy exports during the last 12 months primarily are a result of a favorable exchange rate, which have encouraged aggressive selling of stocks in the local market, and NOT because of a bigger crop than expected. Exports in the same month last year were 2.86 million bags, the report showed.

The last 2015-16 harvest in Brazil was one of the country’s smallest in 10 years as the effects of several years of severe drought took its toll on the harvest, resulting both in significantly lower yields on trees as well as a sharply reduced bean size. The 2015-16 harvest was in general known as the “small bean crop” within the Brazilian coffee industry.

The drop for March was the second month during the first quarter were coffee exports were down. In January Brazilian coffee exports fell 8.8 percent to 2.485 million bags from 2.725 million bags in the first month of 2015. Even though exports in February rose 6.2 percent to 2.669 million bags from 2.513 million bags the same month a year ago, overall exports during the first quarter from January through March are down 2.1 percent at 7.929 million bags. In the first quarter of 2015 Brazil exported 8.098 million bags.

Brazil is expected to produce a bigger crop this year with most analysts pegging production for the new 2016-17 harvest to reach somewhere in a range between 49 million and 55 million bags — but local agronomists say excessive dryness continue to effect the Robusta crop in Brazil’s second largest coffee growing state of Espirito Santo, which for the past 3 consecutive crops have suffered severe damage from drought resulting in sharply reduced yields.
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