BREAKING NEWS: JULY 15 (SpillingTheBeans)–The new 2013-14 coffee harvest in the world’s top grower Brazil will fall short of expectations and is unlikely to yield more than 49.4 million 60-kilogram bags, Santos-based traders and exporters Comexim said Monday. Revising its previous figure for the new crop sharply down by 3.8 million bags, Comexim said the heavy rains in June has caused severe damage to quality. The traders also said the extremely dry weather in January and February in many areas of Espirito Santo caused significant damage to the final bean formation in Brazil’s second largest coffee growing state, which is the main source of Brazilian robusta beans, also known as conillon.
“Concerning conillon, we originally estimated a crop of 16,8 million bags, which we are forced to reduce volume outcome to about 13 million bags. This important volume reduction was due to lack of rains in Jan and Feb of this year and also caused a reduction of yield. Beans are smaller than in normal years due to lack of humidity at the right time,” said Comexim in its latest crop report.
It said as the “Conillon” robusta harvest now “in the great majority has been completed” trade was having a very clear idea of the final result, while the ongoing harvest of the Brazilian Arabiza harvest won’t be know for some months still.
“We still maintain the Arabica overall expectation to be of 36,4 million bags but with the conillon number, we reduce our overall Brazilian production to 49,4 million bags. The present incoming Arabica crop, we estimate to be at approximately 20 % already harvested and of not so good quality. The reason to this being long and constant spells of rain during June. We have heard of even Cerrado coffee arriving with riado / rio cups,” said the exporters.
SpillingTheBeans considers this latest harvest update from Comexim to be particularly significant to the market as this exporter and trader in recent years have been among the most optimistic when it comes to Brazil figures in the higher end of the scale.
The latest revised fugure from COMEXIM is within range of the forecast by Brazil’s official crop supply agency CONAB, which in its 2nd forecast released for the new 2013-14 harvest in May said it expects the new Brazilian coffee crop to yield 48.6 million bags. The 2013-14 harvest in Brazil is expected the biggest ever production volume yielded in an off-cycle.
Stay tuned for more details, forecasts and analysis on Brazil here.