JULY 20, 2017, 01:28EDT–Brazil’s southern coffee belt continued to register very cold weather early on Thursday with the Parana coffee regions of Jesuitas and Campo Mourao hit for third consecutive day with temperatures between +3C and +4°C, at which level, if exposed for a longer period of time as in the case of Jesuitas, coffee trees and crop can suffer frost damage.
JULY 18, 2017, 12:10EDT UPDATE–Brazil’s IAPAR has just issued a NEW frost warning for ALL Parana coffee regions for Wed morning. With the reach of frost extending up to 72 hours this is a perfect recipe for frost damage, and even if the new harvest is over 50% done and damage might be limited any damage will still reduce an already smaller crop in Brazil. The INTENSE cold predicted for Wednesday will also extend into a large part of Sao Paulo and some border regions with Southern Minas.
JULY 18, 2017, 10:30EDT UPDATE–Weather in all of Brazil’s state of Parana continues to be VERY COLD and no easing of temperatures are predicted for the following 48 hours. Over 50 cities across the south including the entire Parana coffee belt registered frost at dawn Tuesday and a total of 32 municipalities registered temperatures near or below 0°C, the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology said. Brazil’s weather forecasters Somar, meanwhile, said that at least 8 cities reported snow. Coffee at high risk.
JUL 18, 2017, 02:30a.m. EDT–An intense mass of polar air is currently striking Brazil’s southern most coffee state of Parana with all coffee producing regions reporting temperatures BELOW the threshold for when near freezing degrees can cause frost damage to both crop and trees. In coffee cities across the main western coffee belt of Parana, including Sao Jorge do Patrocinio, Jesuitas, Paranavai and the entire coffee corridor between Umuarama and Campo Mourao temperatures were lingering between -1°C and +2°C for over 4 to 6 hours at dawn Tuesday. Coffee frost starts when temperatures dip below +3 to +4°C where coffee can suffer damage if exposed at an extended period.
Even if damage occur and even if damage might be limited, this comes at a time when the market can ill afford losing any more crop from Brazil, the world’s largest grower and exporter, where a significantly smaller crop this cycle already has led to a furious domestic debate about whether Brazil needs to import coffee in order to satisfy both export demand and local consumption as stocks at near-zero are at the lowest levels in years.
Coffee producing regions in Brazil’s Parana state
The current cold front is forecast to last for a full three days through July 20th and pockets of the coffee regions in Sao Paulo state are also within reach. Between 50 and 60 percent of the new 2017-18 crop in Parana is already estimated to have been harvested, and production for the state is forecast at about 1.2 million 60-kilogram bags. Stay tuned for more reports as soon as details become available.
The Parana Agronomic Institute, IAPAR, have issued several frost warnings over the last week saying this week’s attack is expected to be particularly high risk to coffee;
JUL 4, 2017, 3a.m. EDT–The intense cold front currently present in Southern Brazil’s primary coffee belt of Sao Paulo and Southern Minas has brought temperatures down to between as low as 2 and 3 degrees in many Southern Minas coffee towns including Juruaia, Muzambinho, Sao Pedro, Cabo Verde and Poços de Caldas. As we have said all along, this cold front has carried the potential to create significant frost damage, but at this point the “coffee frost” is limited to these regions mentioned here while the brunt of coffee regions have escaped the lower extend of temperatures. Coffee frost starts when temperatures dip below +3 to +4°C where coffee can suffer damage but so far no damage has been reported. The cold front will continue through the wee hours of July 5th. Stay tuned for our updates as we gather reports directly from farms and coffee producers in the regions caught under the cold spell.
BREAKING: Monster Frost Attack Headed For Brazil’s Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Parana Coffee Regions
JUN 28, 2017–A massive wave of intense cold air will the entire coffee belt in southern Brazil between July 3 and 4, creating the conditions for a MONSTER frost attack that could strike all coffee regions in Minas Gerais, including Southern Minas, Cerrado and Matas, as well as all coffee regions of Sao Paulo and Parana states. This is by far the biggest and most dangerous frost risk to hit coffee in Brazil potentially in years and is covering an area accounting for 70 percent of Brazil’s entire coffee producing area and 88 percent of the Arabica crop forecast for the 2017-18 crop currently being harvested.
Stay tuned for news here at SpillingTheBeans and see more here; http://sma.fundacaoabc.org/previsao_tempo/geada
JUN 11–8:50a.m. Update–Brazil’s southern coffee town of Poços de Caldas, which is located on the border between Sao Paulo state and Southern Minas, reported coffee frost for the second day in a row with temperatures as low as 3°C on Sunday and trees with ripe fruit were extended to temperatures between +3°C and +4°C for as much as three hours.
*In the southern-most coffee producing states of Parana, meanwhile, temperatures reached between +2°C and +3° early Sunday, Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) said in a weather report, adding that coffee growers expressed concern over the “intense cold” that persisted for most of the weekend. On Saturday temperatures were as cold as +1°
*Coffee frost starts when temperatures dip below +3 to +4°C where coffee can suffer damage but so far no damage has been reported.
*Multiple news outlets in Brazil report that this weekend’s cold front has potentially led to new historic LOWS for cold and frosty weather in Sao Paulo and Parana; https://www.climatempo.com.br/noticia/2017/06/11/recorde-de-frio-em-sao-paulo-4558
*Para mais detalhes; https://www.terra.com.br/noticias/climatempo/o-mundo-do-cafe-mudou,a9c29cd1c444869fda08929b8b3d791dihyhp4m6.html
JUN 10–8a.m. Update–Brazil’s southern coffee town of Poços de Caldas, which is located on the border between Sao Paulo state and Southern Minas, reports frost with temperatures as low as 3°C at dawn Saturday. Coffee frost starts when temperatures dip below 3 to 4°C where coffee can suffer damage. Temperatures are forecast to dip to 3°C again during the night to Sunday. No frost damage has been reported to coffee so far.
JUN 9, 2017–The Agronomic Institute of Parana, IAPAR,in Brazil’s southernmost coffee producing state, has issued a forst alert for the region’s coffee farmers, saying that young plants will be particularly vulnerable to colder weather at dawn on Saturday June 10th where the weather potentially could cause frost damage. The Parana Meteorological System, Simepar, agrees with IAPAR and has backed up on the frost alert for this Saturday.
BREAKING: First 2017 Frost Alert Out For Brazil’s Sul de Minas, Parana, Sao Paulo Coffee Region
JUN 6, 2017 (SpillingTheBeans)–The first frost alert has been issued for the 2017-18 harvest in the Brazilian coffee belt of Southern Minas, Parana and Sao Paulo between June 10 to 11, weather forecasters in the world’s largest grower and exporter said. During the up-coming weekend temperatures can potentially dip below +3/+4 degrees Celcius, at which point ripe coffee cherries and leafs can suffer damage and, if exposed for several hours or longer, can result in such severe impact that the damage turn into crop losses.
Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry’s crop forecasting agency Conab has pegged the new 2017-18 coffee crop to drop to as low as 45.563 million 60-kilogram bags, down from 51.369 million bags in the last 2016-17 bumper crop. This is well below the balance of minimum 53-54 million bags required to meet domestic demand of 21 million bags and export demand of at least 33 million bags.
The world coffee market is currently in a precarious situation where coffee crops in most of the world’s producing countries continue to suffer negative effects from climate change and years of low prices. Brazil’s coffee industry has for months been debating the necessity of issuing an historic green bean import quota in order to keep up with demand from the country’s processing and roasting stakeholders as well as exporters eager to keep shipments at par with the leves of recent years.
*Para leer mas en el Blog de Café haga click: http://spilling-the-beans.net/blog-de-cafe-frio-preocupa-produtor-de-cafe-do-sul-de-mg-e-mogiana-paulista/
See more details about the latest frost alert here: http://sma.fundacaoabc.org/previsao_tempo/geada
Last year frost damage hit many farms and regions in Southern Minas, Cerrado, Sao Paulo and Parana, and even though the total damage numbers stayed well below 1 million bags, a figure of losses of some 500,000 bags — as per estimations by private growers associations and industry officials — result in less coffee available to the industry and consumers at a time when the market can ill afford more shortfalls.
Stay tuned for more news on the harvest and frost developments in Brazil HERE at SpillingTheBeans.