JUNE 17 UPDATE:
*New report by New York-based financial services corporation Morgan Stanley says the damage in Brazil from unseasonal heavy rains during May are potentially as high as 36 percent of the TOTAL harvest in the key coffee producing regions of Southern Minas and Sao Paulo, areas that account for over 60 percent of Brazil’s total harvest and over 80 percent of the Brazilian Arabica crop. The figure for the scale of the potential rain damage was not Morgan Stanley’s own research or evaluation but attributed to the Brazil Farm Ecnomy Institute, IEA.
*Morgan Stanley also say that “a bias exists” from trade and managed money to ignore the extend of losses in Brazil
*Morgan Stanley also CONFIRM PROJECTIONS by SpillingTheBeans that the current harvest is between 25-50 percent completed, saying actual figures are at 34 percent complete by June 14th, leaving AMPLE room for weather impact to keep the new coffee in Brazil vulnerable.
–SpillingTheBeans has NOT seen the original report, only extracts. Stay tuned for more updates!
*Brazil’s SOMAR says new intense cold front provoked by La Niña / La Nina can continue to hit coffee regions in Brazil across Southern Minas, Sao Paulo and Parana for a full 3 months more all the way through September. See full story here (in Portuguese), English translation coming up:Brazil’s coffee regions at frost risk for 3 more months as La Nina cold extended
*SOMAR AgroMeteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos Confirms “There HAS been damage in Southern Minas, Sao Paulo and Parana – there will be losses.” See the full interview here (in Portuguese), English translation coming up:Brazil’s Somar CONFIRMS frost damage to coffee in Southern Minas, Sao Paulo and Parana
JUNE 16–Active ICE September Arabica prices are down 1.00 cent at $1.3910 per pound (10:55a.m.EDT) as bears in the market DESPERATELY try to keep the prices below the psychological barrier of $1.40/lb while switching positions from near-expired July. Highly manipulative!
JUNE 15–SOMAR AgroMeteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos Confirms:
“There HAS been damage in Southern Minas, Sao Paulo and Parana – there will be losses”
*Frost damage now CONFIRMED in at least 5 Southern Minas coffee regions including Muzambinho, Cabo Verde, Monte Verde, Poços de Caldas and Maria de Fe, plus several parts of Mogiana in Sao Paulo and multiple regions across Parana (MORE–SOMAR story coming up SHORTLY)
Frost Damage Reports Increase From Many Parts Of Brazil’s Key Southern Minas Coffee Belt
*FROST DAMAGE REPORTED IN SOUTHERN MINAS’ MUZAMBIHNO, 12 percent of some farms hit.
*FROST DAMAGE CONFIRMED IN PARANA, Coffee plantations hammered by freeze over the weekend
*Damage to coffee also reported in Cabo Verde, Tres Coraçoes, Pocos de Caldas and Parana, while field research is underway in Cabo Verde and Divinolandia
*Traders and growers say situation aggravate severe losses occurred from unseasonal heavy rains in May.
*Coffee Growers say crop WILL be lost in 2016-17 harvest and next 2017-18 crop also to be affected
*Brazilian agronomists CONFIRM all statements reported by SpillingTheBeans AND say damage to coffee might not show for another 2-3 days as trees usually start react within a few days after frost first hit.
*More details, comments, pictures, sources and details coming up shortly! (MORE)
Brazilian agronomist Aline de Freitas Veloso, a technical adviser at the Agricultural Federation of Minas Gerais (FAEMG), told local news in Southern Minas that multiple coffee regions across Southern Minas “have been affected by the intensity of the low temperatures” and the last four days of coffee frost — which starts to affect the coffee plant at +4˚c — have already also caused damage to coffee in many parts of Sao Paulo and coffee region in most of Parana. This latest wave of damage comes AFTER over a month with extreme heavy rains and strong winds which led to “large-scale losses” as mature or near-mature cherries fell to the ground and because of the continued rains many growers were not able to collect this coffee which was left on the ground to rot and ferment.
“With the incidence of the winds and frost, we have had losses of both coffee quality and of crop. The ice burned the trees and the fruit have fallen (to the ground),” he told local news providers Em.com.
In the Southern Minas municipality of Camanducaia, Monte Verde, in Poços de Caldas and Maria de Fe (about 100km south-east of Poços) temperatures fell to as low as -2.9, -2.3 and -1.7˚c respectively at dawn Monday, reaching the lowest levels after four days with frost, said Luiz Ladeia, meteorologist of Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in the story.
Arabica Prices Rise As Brazil Frost Strikes Brazil’s Key Southern Minas Coffee Belt, Some Damage Reported
*Sep Arabica coffee prices are now UP 1.60 cents at 140.45/lb on continuing frost fears in Brazil with market activity brisk! (10:55a.m.EDT) –July prices settled up 0.35 cent at $1.3730/lb. Technical trading for market players switching positions from the soon-to-expire July contract to September weighed heavily on trade but the Brazil frost concerns kept the market in upward terrain.
JUN 13, 7a.m. EDT–Update:
*Parana’s Agronomy Institute reports ALL state’s growing areas were hit with “conditions that is damaging to coffee” at dawn on Sunday and urges frost prevention of trees where possible as cold front will persist. A team is currently investigating the state of crop and trees.
“O Instituto Agronômico do Paraná – IAPAR e o Sistema Meteorológico do Paraná – SIMEPAR, alertam que há previsão de geadas na madrugada de domingo (12) com condições de danificar os cafeeiros novos em toda área cultivada no Paraná, devido à intensificação da massa de ar polar.”
BREAKING: Frost Strikes Brazil’s Key Southern Minas Coffee Belt, Damage Reported As Frost Alert Extended For 4 Days
JUN 12 (SpillingTheBeans)–Brazil’s key coffee producing region of Southern Minas has been hit with damaging frost this weekend with farms and locations across the state reported to be affected by the intense cold, weather experts and industry officials confirmed on Sunday. Key coffee regions in the neighboring coffee state of Sao Paulo also reported near freezing temperatures, while frosty weather has prevailed in the southern-most coffee state of Parana since last week.
Southern Minas alone accounts for 50 percent of Brazil’s total annual coffee harvest, while Sao Paulo in an average crop cycle produces between 5 and 6 million 60-kilogram bags and Parana is home to between 1.1 and 1.6 million bags Arabica coffee.
The worst hit coffee areas in Southern Minas and Sao Paulo reported temperatures as low as 1°C and at least seven major coffee regions within Southern Minas and Sao Paulo reported temperatues between 3°C and 4°C. Frost damage to coffee starts to occur at between 3°C and 4°C when mature coffee cherries on trees start to burn and young trees up to 2 years of age can wilt and die.
“The cold weather started between Thursday and Friday in some parts of Sao Paulo and Parana, and on Saturday we registered temperatures between 3 and 4 degrees in a number of locations in Southern Minas. This is very cold for coffee and within the range where damage is likely to occur,” a coffee meteorologist at Brazil’s weather forecasters Somar told SpillingTheBeans by telephone from Sao Paulo.
Temperatures at dawn Sunday were reported as low as 2°C in Guaxupe, home to the world’s largest coffee cooperative of Cooxupe, while Poços de Caldas on the border between Sao Paulo state and Southern Minas registered 1˚c on Sunday. In both Tres Coraçoes, Muzambinho and Cabo Verde Sunday’s lows fell to 3˚c, while in nearby Varginha, Alfenas, Nova Resende and Tres Pontas temperatures dipped to 5˚c for a second consecutive day.
In Sao Paulo, the coffee region of Franca registered just 4˚c and in Espirito Santo do Pinhal temperatures fell to 3˚c. In southern Parana state temperatures were registered between -3˚c and 4˚c, all deep within damage territory for coffee frost.
“This mass of polar air pushing through the entire southern region all the way up to Southern Minas is really intense and the temperatures today have been even colder than predicted. It’s extremely intense and there is definitively a risk for damaging frost in Southern Minas,” said the Somar official.
The impact on the new 2016-17 harvest is aggravated by the fact that the extreme cold weather already has occurred for several days in a row, with some areas already reporting 3 or 4 days with intense cold which makes coffee even more vulnerable to damage. Damage can start at temperatures between 5°C to 6°C if the coffee is exposed to such cold weather for an extended period of time.
Producers in both Southern Minas and Sao Paulo’s coffee area of Pocos de Caldas reported damage, saying in a number of farms young trees have died and will require replanting.
“The cold weather has been terrible for coffee. We already have reports from the field of areas with young trees that have died and a lot of cherries that had fallen to the ground because of the heavy rains in May now cannot be saved after the frost,” said producer Elina Soares who has a small farm in Pocos de Caldas next to Santa Alina.
In the Southern Minas coffee municipalities of Tres Coraçoes, Guaxupe and Muzambinho temperatures fell to as little as 2˚c and coffee was exposed for between 7 and 10 hours to damaging temperatures.
“We are monitoring the situation very closely and are in constant contact with our growers, but we already know of some producers who have reported damage to both young trees and some crop,” said an official at the Cooxupe cooperative, adding: “This is not good for coffee and with the frost continuing for at least 2 more days we are extremely concerned”
*This story will be updated as new information is confirmed. For more on the current frost alerts and detailed maps of the regions covered, please see: